＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49）さん / X
The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic that began in January 2020 shows no signs of abating, continuing to spread worldwide. Currently, more than 530,000 people are infected worldwide, with over 24,000 deaths.
States of emergency have been declared in various parts of Europe and the United States, with curfews and lockdowns being implemented.
Osaka and Hyogo prefectures issued a request to refrain from going out during the three-day holiday period in late March.
On March 26, Tokyo Governor Koike issued a request to refrain from unnecessary outings until April 12, following an “overshoot” (explosive spread of infection) in the number of new cases of COVID-19 pneumonia for two consecutive days, exceeding 40.
That same evening, the governors of Tokyo and four neighboring prefectures issued a joint message requesting people to refrain from going out.
How long will the novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic last? And how long will self-restraint measures continue? While uncertainty continues to loom, how did past pandemics like SARS, MERS, and the Spanish flu end?
This article explores this question.
Note that the words “convergence” and “end” are similar, but “convergence” means “a temporary calming down of a chaotic state,” while “end” means “a complete end to something.”
1. The SARS Outbreak and Its End
(1) Epidemic Duration
SARS began with cases reported in Foshan, Guangdong Province, China on November 16, 2002. The last cases were in Taiwan, and the WHO declared the outbreak over on July 5, 2003.
On March 12, 2003, the WHO issued a global “warning regarding an atypical pneumonia outbreak” and began a full-scale investigation.
On March 15, 2003, the WHO named the severe respiratory illness of unknown cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and took the unprecedented step of issuing travel advisories as a “global health threat.”
At this point, the virus had not yet been identified, and it was identified as a “novel SARS coronavirus” on April 16, 2003.
(2) History and Reasons for the End of the Outbreak
The fundamental reason for the end of the outbreak is said to be the “identification and elimination of the source of infection.”
The source of SARS is believed to have been palm civets, which are hunted for food in parts of China. It is believed that infections stopped and SARS was contained as soon as palm civets were removed from the market.
Then, by isolating already infected patients, no new cases occurred even 20 days after the last patient was isolated, which is twice the average incubation period, and the WHO declared the disease to be over on July 5, 2003.
However, in addition to palm civets, many wild animals such as bats and raccoon dogs carry coronaviruses similar to the SARS coronavirus, so these are also suspected as sources of infection.
(3) Incubation Period and Number of Patients and Deaths
The incubation period is 2 to 10 days.
It is believed that SARS is not contagious from pre-symptomatic patients. This is a major difference from the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) currently spreading worldwide.
The total number of cases was 8,098, with 774 deaths.
2. MERS Outbreak and End
(1) Outbreak Period
Unlike SARS and the Wuhan novel coronavirus pneumonia, MERS did not spread rapidly within a few months of its outbreak, but rather gradually over several years after its discovery.
Furthermore, MERS has not disappeared and is still present.
MERS was first discovered in September 2012. According to this report, an infected person was hospitalized in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on June 13, 2012, and died on June 24, 2012.
The following year, in May 2013, it was named Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS).
On July 17, 2013, the WHO announced that “although there is no need to be concerned about the spread of infection, sufficient vigilance is necessary.”
The infection continued to spread gradually thereafter, but in 2015, it spread rapidly in South Korea.
On May 20, 2015, an “in-hospital infection” occurred via an air conditioner at a hospital in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, where a patient confirmed to have MERS (who had traveled to the Middle East) was hospitalized, and the infection spread throughout South Korea.
The South Korean government declared the end of MERS on July 28, 2015, but on October 12, a patient who had fully recovered tested positive again, causing the WHO to postpone the declaration.
On December 23, 2015, the South Korean government issued a “MERS-free declaration based on WHO criteria,” marking the end of the MERS outbreak in South Korea.
(2) History and Reasons for the End of the Outbreak
The source of infection is believed to be dromedaries. Infection occurs through direct or indirect contact with MERS-infected dromedaries. The infection then spreads from person to person.
By isolating and managing patients, MERS has been prevented from spreading from person to person, and the outbreak has been brought under control over time.
(3) Incubation Period, Number of Cases, and Deaths
The incubation period is 2 to 14 days (median: about 5 days).
In South Korea, there were 186 cases and 38 deaths.
As of January 27, 2020, the total number of infected people worldwide was approximately 2,490, with approximately 850 deaths.
3. The Spanish Flu Pandemic and Its End
(1) Epidemic Period
This pandemic, which occurred worldwide from January 1918 to December 1920, is known as the “worst pandemic of the 20th century” and is one of the deadliest infectious diseases in human history.
The virus was the H1N1 strain of influenza A. One of the strains of seasonal influenza seen today is a mutation of this virus.
The source of infection is believed to have been the barracks at Funston Army Base in Kansas, USA.
At the time, World War I was in full swing, and Germany was using unrestricted submarine warfare to sink neutral American merchant ships. This incident prompted the United States to enter the war and send a large military force to Europe.
The Spanish flu spread throughout the world as American troops were dispatched to Europe. As troops traveled by ship, it spread from the cities and rural areas where troops were stationed to the local civilian population.
The Spanish flu spread in several waves.
The first wave occurred near Detroit and South Carolina in March 1918, crossed the Atlantic as the US military advanced into Europe, and became a major epidemic in Europe in May and June. The WHO described it as “not particularly deadly.”
The second wave occurred simultaneously around the world in the fall of 1918, and the virus became even more virulent, causing serious complications and a sharp increase in deaths. However, the disease subsided once temperatures rose in the spring.
The third wave raged around the world from spring to fall of 1919. This time, many doctors and nurses were initially infected, which led to a “collapse of the medical system” and further exacerbated the damage caused by the infection. However, this time too, the outbreak began to subside as temperatures rose in the spring of the following year.
(2) History and reasons for the subsidence
At the time, there were no anti-influenza drugs or vaccines.
The only measures available to prevent the spread of infection were patient isolation, personal hygiene and disinfection, school closures, and bans on gatherings and events. However, as temperatures rose in the spring, the outbreak seemed to subside naturally.
In addition, those who survived the Spanish flu may have developed immunity. Many people born before 1888 (those in their 30s or older at the time) were likely exposed to the same type of influenza virus as the Spanish flu as children, which may have given them immunity.
(3) Incubation Period, Number of Cases, and Deaths
The incubation period is unclear.
Approximately 500 million people worldwide were infected, and 50 to 100 million people died. The world’s population at the time was approximately 1.6 billion, meaning that roughly one-third of humanity was infected. Moreover, the mortality rate was extremely high, at 10-20%. Most deaths occurred within 48 hours of onset.
While the Spanish flu killed many young people, including young children, the elderly, and those in poor health, it was particularly prevalent among young people aged 15 to 35. This is because many people born before 1888 had been exposed to the same type of influenza virus as the Spanish flu as children and had therefore developed immunity.
World War I killed approximately 16 million people, and World War II killed approximately 50 to 80 million, so the Spanish flu claimed more lives than any other world war. Incidentally, in Japan (with a population of approximately 55 million at the time), the infection rate was 42%, resulting in approximately 450,000 deaths.
(4) Japan’s Ministry of Home Affairs’ Health Bureau’s call for prevention measures
In January 2019, the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Health Bureau issued a “Guidelines for Preventing Influenza” for the general public.
The guide explains that “when you cough or sneeze, tiny bubbles invisible to the naked eye are blown out three or four feet around you, and anyone who inhales them will contract the disease,” and goes on to describe prevention methods.
“Do not approach sick or suspected sick people or those coughing.”
“Do not enter crowded places.”
“Lightly cover your nose and mouth with a handkerchief or towel.”
The prevention methods used 100 years ago for the Spanish flu are essentially the same as the current prevention measures for novel coronavirus pneumonia.
(5) Origin of the Name “Spanish Flu”
It’s strange why it’s called the “Spanish flu” even though it originated in the United States. Many people mistakenly believe it originated in Spain.
This is because Spain was one of Europe’s few neutral countries during World War I and was exempt from wartime media censorship. News of the novel coronavirus’s infection and devastation was broadcast to the world from Spain.
Approximately 8 million people in Spain were infected, including King Alfonso XIII and government officials. In Japan, it was initially reported as “a strange disease epidemic in Spain.”
The currently raging “novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)” originated in Wuhan, China, and China’s strong reaction to the United States calling it the “Chinese virus” or “Wuhan virus” may be due to the “Spanish flu” in mind.