＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49）さん / X
<Added 7/31/2021> In 2020, the average life expectancy of Japanese people reached a new record high
The average life expectancy of Japanese people in 2020 was 81.64 years for men (81.41 years in 2019), second only to Switzerland in the world, and 87.74 years for women (87.45 years in 2019), still ranking first in the world.
Has it been since around 1980 that people started to talk about the “declining birthrate”? It seems like quite a long time has passed. Recently, it has been combined with “aging” and is referred to as the “declining birthrate and aging population problem.”
1. Japan’s population forecast
The Cabinet Office compiled a report titled “Choices for the Future” compiled by the “Committee on Choosing the Future” in 2014 (Heisei 26), and has compiled it into a booklet called “Questions for You” to make it easier for the younger generation to understand. The booklet has been distributed to elementary and junior high school students, and is also available on the Cabinet Office website.
According to this, Japan’s population is expected to be 42.86 million in 2110 (91 years from now), just one-third of the current population, with half of that number being elderly.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism predicts that Japan will experience a rapid population decline, declining birthrate and aging, with the population falling to around 97 million by 2050, with the population of around 60% of regions being reduced by half or more, and one-third of these regions being uninhabited, leading to a situation no country has ever experienced before where the proportion of people aged 65 or over will be around 40%.
2. The advantages and disadvantages of a declining birthrate and an aging population
(1) Advantages
Normally, “a declining birthrate and an aging population” is thought of as something bad, a problem, but is that really the case? Are there any advantages to it?
① A decrease in the labor force will lead to greater “efficiency” through AI and robots, which will also lead to export business.
② It will be easier to raise the price of Made in Japan products to a fair price, increasing product value and rarity.
③ Fewer children will reduce rush hour traffic and carbon dioxide emissions, which is good for the global environment.
④ A decrease in population will increase living space.
⑤ Fewer children will allow for an increase in the budget per person.
⑥ A decrease in population will improve food self-sufficiency.
⑦ Fewer young people and an increase in the elderly will increase voter turnout in elections.
3. Current situation, causes and countermeasures for the declining birthrate and aging population
(1) Current situation
As of August 1, 2019, Japan’s total population is 126.23 million, and according to population estimates as of September 15, 2019, the number of people aged 65 or older is 35.88 million.
The average life expectancy in 2018 was 87.32 years for women and 81.25 years for men, making Japan the second longest-living country in the world after Hong Kong for women and the third longest-living country in the world after Hong Kong and Switzerland for men.
(2) Causes
① Late marriage due to women’s advancement into the workforce
② Increasing childbirth age
③ Increase in unmarried people, and an increase in people who think they don’t need to get married (changes in values)
④ Increase in parasite singles (single people who live with their parents and live off them)
⑤ Increase in couples who think they don’t need to have children (changes in values)
⑥ Difficulty raising three or four children due to the trend toward nuclear families
⑦ Increase in the financial burden of raising children (child support and education costs)
⑧ Increase in the elderly population due to growing public health awareness and advances in medical technology
(3) Measures
The “population forecast” mentioned in 1 above is based on the assumption that “the status quo will remain unchanged and no measures will be taken.”
① Create an environment where working women can easily give birth and raise children (by increasing childcare facilities and benefits for child-rearing generations, etc.)
② Abolish the mandatory retirement age
③ Promote mutual assistance and volunteer activities in the local community
④ Increase the number of “foreign workers with high Japanese language skills and technical skills who can adapt to Japanese society” rather than “immigrants”
⑤ Further promote AI and robotics
⑥ Promote health maintenance and improvement so that each person does not become a “bedridden elderly person,” and extend “healthy longevity”