＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49）さん / X
Have you ever heard of the term “CASE” or the “CASE era”?
It’s still a term that is not very familiar to most people, but it’s a keyword that will bring about a major transformation in the automotive industry in the near future.
I’d like to explain what it is today.
1. What is “CASE”?
“CASE” is an acronym for four words: “Connected,” “Autonomous,” “Shared & Services,” and “Electric.”
These four keywords are said to bring about a “mobility revolution.”
This phrase was coined by Dieter Zetsche, president of Daimler AG, when he announced the new EV (electric vehicle) “EQ” at the Paris Motor Show in October 2016.
These four words are just a list of current trends in the automobile industry, but Zetsche said, “What’s important is a package that provides all four of these things. The new brand, EQ, will develop its business in accordance with CASE.” The company decided to aim to transform itself from a traditional “automobile manufacturer” to a “mobility service provider.”
(1) “Connected”
This means “a car that is constantly connected to a network.” Specifically, it is a technology that allows cars to have built-in communication terminals and constantly exchange information with the outside world using the Internet, etc.
Sensors collect various data such as the condition of the vehicle and the surrounding road conditions, and then collect and analyze it via a network to create various values.
Conventional GPS car navigation systems have a one-way connection, but with CASE, artificial intelligence (AI) analyzes the data at a high level, creating an inter-connection that provides useful information to the driver in real time. For example, there is a service that grasps the availability of parking spaces and sends the information to a dedicated app.
(2) “Autonomous”
This is the technology behind “self-driving cars,” which are currently being actively tested. It’s also well-known from a Toyota commercial in which actor Teruyuki Kagawa is in the passenger seat of a self-driving car traveling at high speeds, and is amazed by its technology.
There have also been reports of accidents occurring during tests of “self-driving” on public roads. It seems that safety improvements and further improvements in technology will continue to be necessary.
Currently, automakers are introducing Level 2 autonomous driving technology (partial driving automation). Germany’s Audi’s premium sedan and GM’s new Cadillac are equipped with Level 3 autonomous driving technology (conditional driving automation), but due to the lack of legal and other developments, they are still only capable of operating at Level 2 autonomous driving.
If autonomous driving is upgraded to “Level 4 autonomous driving” (highly automated driving) and then “Level 5 autonomous driving” (fully automated driving), and fully autonomous driving on highways becomes a reality, it will greatly alleviate the long working hours and labor shortages issues in the trucking industry, which involves a lot of long-distance transportation.
(3) “Shared & Services”
This is an initiative to promote the sharing of cars.
It is called “car sharing” or “ride sharing,” and it encourages a change in perception from “owning” a car to “sharing.” This is also emphasized in the Toyota KINTO commercial “Fixed-rate Family” starring actors Koichi Sato and Shota Matsuda. It is a “car subscription.”
Rental cars will give way to car sharing, and taxis to ride sharing, some of which will be replaced by robotaxis, and it is expected that people will travel more frequently using “mobility services.”
(4) “Electric” (Electrification, electric vehicles)
Sales of new electrified cars are accelerating in Europe, China, and the United States. From the perspective of environmental issues, the electrification of automobiles is rapidly spreading, starting in Europe, to restrict the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles.
2. Is CASE a threat or an opportunity?
(1) Threat
① Automobile manufacturers It is expected that the number of people who purchase “personal cars” will decrease in the future.
In addition, sales regulations for gasoline and diesel vehicles are expected to be strengthened.
As demand shifts from “individual-centered” to “corporate-centered,” changes in the “standards for a good car” are also expected. The traditional standards of “easy to drive,” “easy to accelerate,” and “owning a car gives you a sense of status” will change to “it comes quickly when you call,” “the interior is of high quality,” “it’s easy to use for specific purposes,” “easy to maintain,” “it’s easy to clean the seats,” and so on.
At the very least, this will be a threat to companies that are not aware of CASE and remain traditional automakers.
② Insurance companies
Insurance companies will also see a decline in revenue due to fewer accidents caused by autonomous driving and a decrease in private cars. Furthermore, if fully autonomous driving becomes possible, the responsibility for traffic accidents may fall on the automobile manufacturer, and automobile insurance that is based on the assumption that the driver is responsible for traffic accidents may become unnecessary.
③Gas stations and private car parking management
If electric cars become more common, the number of gas station bankruptcies will increase. This will also have a negative impact on private car parking management.
(2) Opportunities
① Toyota’s CASE-conscious business development
Toyota has declared that it will “change its model from a traditional car manufacturing company to a mobility company,” and is preparing to develop its business with an awareness of CASE.
At the press conference on October 4, 2018 to announce the establishment of MONET Technologies, a joint venture with SoftBank, President Toyoda Akio said, “We are entering a once-in-a-century era of great change, and CASE is bringing about this change.” He expressed his view that “Technological innovations such as connectivity, automation, sharing, and electrification have dramatically changed the concept of cars, and are significantly changing both our competitors and the rules of competition. Cars of the future will become part of the social system by being connected to all kinds of services.”
In September 2019, Toyota announced its intention to increase its stake in Subaru from the current 17% to more than 20%, making it an “equity method affiliate.” The plan is to strengthen the capital ties between the two companies, jointly develop autonomous driving technologies, and respond to global competition over next-generation vehicles.
② “Autonomous driving” will help “those with poor transportation skills”
Japan has a low birthrate and aging population, and there are problems with “those with poor transportation skills” in depopulated areas, so I think “autonomous driving” will be a big opportunity.
Will it be around 2030 when unmanned mobility services such as “Roboshuttle” (unmanned route buses) become a reality? At least, I don’t think it’s that far in the future.