＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49）さん / X
The global pandemic of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), which has been ongoing since January 2020, continues to see a steady increase in infections and deaths with each passing day, with no signs of abating.
Just as television broadcasts of mask and alcohol-based hand sanitizer shortages, resulting in lines at drugstores and shortages, and then toilet paper, a growing number of people began bulk-buying (hoarding) toilet paper, leading to continued shortages.
While the situation seems to have calmed down somewhat, a similar situation was seen during the 1973 “oil crisis.”
1. False rumors cause anxiety, herd mentality, and panic.
The toilet paper shortage phenomenon is clearly caused by false rumors, resulting in anxiety, herd mentality, and panic.
This phenomenon is known as an “infodemic,” which refers to the widespread spread of unfounded information and the resulting social unrest.
False rumors (hoaxes) that “toilet paper is about to run out, and it’s manufactured in China” spread rapidly through social media, causing many people to rush to stock up, resulting in actual toilet paper shortages at drugstores and other places.
The situation seemed to calm down for the time being when the government announced that “almost all toilet paper is produced in Japan and there is ample stock.”
However, with subsequent reports of “stay-at-home orders” and “lockdowns” in various parts of Europe, it is true that “anxiety” has once again begun to rear its head: “Will I be in trouble if I don’t stock up on some?” “If a staff member at my local drugstore or supermarket becomes infected with COVID-19 and has to close temporarily, I won’t be able to buy it,” and “products may run out.”
2. Why false and unfounded rumors can actually cause shortages
The sequence is: “Rumor → Spread on social media → Actual shortage → Increased panic buying → Shortage → Panic → Out-of-stock incident.”
The reason why toilet paper actually became scarce even though it was in stock is because people who believed the rumor, or those who didn’t believe the rumor but were anxious about running out, rushed to stock up, resulting in “deliveries not being able to keep up” and “deliveries selling out quickly.”
The shortage may also have been exacerbated by Chinese and Japanese “scalpers” who had gotten a taste for panic buying and reselling masks, who began buying them in bulk.
However, I think the situation calmed down after March 15th, when “high-priced resales” of masks and other items were banned on sites like Mercari.
3. Why did the toilet paper shortage occur during the oil crisis?
Why did toilet paper shortages occur during the 1973 oil crisis, a time when social media didn’t even exist?
The oil crisis was as follows:
Following the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War in October 1973, Saudi Arabia and six other Persian Gulf oil-producing member countries of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) announced an increase in crude oil prices. Furthermore, they announced gradual reductions and a ban on crude oil exports to countries supporting Israel, including the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan.
As a result, fuel and raw material shortages caused prices to rise sharply in Western countries, leading to economic turmoil. This was the oil crisis.
The media reported on oil resource shortages every day, and public anxiety was growing. Then, when the government issued a call to conserve paper resources, rumors and falsehoods that paper would run out began to spread.
In November 1973, a flyer at Senri Daimaru Plaza in Senri New Town, Osaka, provoked housewives to rush to buy the sale toilet paper, lured in by the news that “paper would run out (due to extremely low prices).” As a result, the product sold out. The store then made regular toilet paper available, but that too sold out in the blink of an eye.
When a newspaper heard about this, it published a sensational (false) article claiming that “prices doubled in an instant.” While it’s natural that regular toilet paper is more expensive than the sale item, this article had a huge impact.
This caused a furor that grew, and toilet paper buying sprees broke out all over the country.
Back then, rumors and the media fueled anxiety and herd mentality, creating a kind of panic. I believe that the media was there instead of today’s social media.
In other words, the flow was “rumor → spread by the media → actual shortage → increased buying sprees → shortages → rush to buy → out-of-stock spree.”