There are many questions about Prime Minister Abe’s recent diplomatic stance toward Russia and North Korea.

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In his recent rush for “diplomatic achievements,” Prime Minister Abe seems to be making too many concessions, just like US President Trump’s negotiations with North Korea. Is this aimed at the Upper House election?

1.Negotiations on the Return of the Northern Territories to Russia

Although we have held 26 summit meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s intransigent stance has not changed at all. On the contrary, the Japanese side is conspicuous for its unintelligible unilateral concessions, such as deleting the phrase “the four northern islands belong to Japan” in this year’s Blue Book of Diplomacy.

I believe that Political Vice President Kishida is right to take issue with the deletion of the wording of this Diplomatic Blue Paper.

This does not make me feel that Japan has any accusation or legitimate claim against Russia for illegally occupying the four northern islands. It appears that they are only trying to buy back not all four islands, but only two, for money they do not have to pay at all.

Moreover, Russia itself not only “does not admit that it is illegally occupying the land,” but also “does not recognize that Japan has sovereignty over it,” a statement that is incomprehensible. If this is what they are talking about, what do they have to say? It is obvious that this would be “giving more money to thieves”.

Have the war crimes of Siberian internment, which was illegal and cruel in the extreme, been dismissed and claims for compensation for damages been ignored?

Japan’s original position should be that “unconditional evacuation of Russia from the Northern Territories” and “claiming compensation for damages caused by Siberian internment and illegal occupation of the Northern Territories” should be the first priority. I feel that Japan is trying to undermine its own national interests by pushing ahead only with “peace treaty negotiations” that will bring no benefits to Japan.

2.Negotiations on the Return of Abductees to North Korea

Recently, Prime Minister Abe has stated that “even if North Korea launches a missile, we will talk with Chairman Kim Jong-un unconditionally,” but it is obvious that this would be “giving more money to thieves”.

I believe that the existing “unconditional return of all abductees is an absolute precondition for Japan-North Korea talks” must not be broken.

If things continue as they are now, Japan may be seen as having naively given in to North Korea’s provocations and threats by launching missiles.

3.Future Outlook

It may not make any sense for me to say this as an outsider, but I believe that both negotiations with Russia and North Korea are likely to end in “failure. I hope that you will not “rush to achieve success” and that you will conduct prudent diplomatic negotiations with resolute principals, putting the national interest first.

(1)Negotiations with Russia

Failure to negotiate with Russia means the following

The result is an ex post facto recognition of Russia’s “illegal occupation” as not being an illegal occupation.

The four northern islands will not be recognized as Japanese territory, but will be recognized as “territory legally acquired by Russia in World War II. In form, it will be “jointly administered by Japan and Russia” from now on.

Russian military bases, factories, and housing on the four northern islands, as well as residential rights for Russians and Chinese, will be recognized.

All claims by Russia for compensation for Siberian internment of Japanese soldiers will be rejected.

Conversely, Japan will be required to spend a large amount of national expenditure on the four northern islands “in the name of economic cooperation with Russia”.

I predict that a “Japan-Russia Peace Treaty” will be concluded after these unreasonable demands are met.

(2)Negotiations with North Korea

Failures in negotiations with North Korea are as follows.

First, North Korea will demand long-term and enormous aid in the form of economic cooperation and humanitarian aid.

The demand for “war reparations (quasi-compensation)” and “postwar compensation” similar to or greater than that of South Korea will be brought up.

As for the abductees, they will not return all the survivors honestly, and even if they do, they will try to maximize the amount of aid by returning a few at a time in small packages.

Kim will continue to launch missiles and develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to shake up Japan and the U.S.

They will ask for “regime security of the Kim dynasty.


ロシアを知る。 [ 池上 彰 ]


国売りたもうことなかれ 論戦2005 [ 櫻井よしこ ]