＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49）さん / X
<Added July 31, 2021> Economic losses from the state of emergency will exceed the economic benefits of the Olympics and Paralympics!
Nomura Research Institute has calculated that the economic losses from the state of emergency will far exceed the economic benefits of the Olympic and Paralympic Games.
The estimate estimates that the economic losses from the state of emergency imposed on Kanagawa and four other prefectures will be 940 billion yen.
Furthermore, when the extension of the state of emergency in Tokyo and other areas is taken into account, the economic losses from the “fourth state of emergency” will balloon to 2.19 trillion yen.
This will far exceed the expected economic benefits of the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, estimated at 1.6771 trillion yen, and the Olympic benefits will be “completely offset,” the report states.
Nearly a month has passed since the state of emergency was declared on April 7, and its expiration date (May 6) is approaching. However, with no end in sight to the global spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic, there is growing support for an extension of the state of emergency.
On the other hand, there are countries like China that are promoting efforts to “restart economic activity,” such as “lifting the lockdown in Wuhan” and “constructing the world’s largest soccer stadium.” In the United States, perhaps due to “COVID-fatigue,” there are also demonstrations demanding the resumption of economic activity. While the Japanese people are also enduring, there is no doubt that they are becoming increasingly “COVID-fatigued.”
So, in this article, I would like to consider how we should proceed with “lifting the COVID-19 state of emergency” and “restarting economic activity.”
1. How to proceed with lifting the COVID-19 state of emergency
(1) Criteria for deciding whether to lift it
I believe the following approach should be taken:
1) Gradually lift the state of emergency in each region, depending on the infection situation.
2) The infection situation is defined as the “effective reproduction number (*)” (infection multiplier) falling below 1, meaning the number of infected people is decreasing.
3) Even if a state of emergency is lifted in a certain region, it should be lifted partially and then gradually, while monitoring the situation.
(*) What is the “effective reproduction number”?
In the field of infectious disease medicine, there are two terms: “basic reproduction number” and “effective reproduction number.” These two terms refer to the average number of secondary infections that will be produced from one infected person with a specific infectious disease.
The “basic reproduction number” is an estimate of the average number of people that will be infected by one infected person under normal circumstances, when no one has immunity to a certain infectious disease.
The “effective reproduction number” is “an actual value that indicates the average number of people who are actually infected by one infected person at a specific point in time in a group where an infectious disease is actually prevalent.” Many people may remember that an expert panel previously created “epidemic scenarios of 1.4, 1.7, and 2.0” and announced that “Tokyo would be 1.7.”
When the “effective reproduction number” is greater than 1, it means that “the infectious disease epidemic is heading toward expansion,” whereas when the “effective reproduction number” is less than 1, it can be said that “the infectious disease epidemic is heading toward convergence.”
(2) NHK’s report on the lifting of restrictions
On the 25th, Minister for Economic Revitalization Nishimura stated on NHK Special, “We need to set out our thinking in advance so as to avoid confusion as much as possible,” indicating that he would like to make some decisions in advance to avoid causing confusion for schools and businesses.
However, with regard to the current situation regarding infections, experts have pointed out that while the number of daily infections has begun to decrease in Tokyo and Osaka, it is not as low as expected.
In light of this situation, there is a growing view within the government that it will be difficult to completely lift the restrictions, and the government plans to make a careful decision going forward, taking into account the opinions of experts.
I think this is the right way to think about it.
2. Restarting Economic Activity
Even if the state of emergency is extended, I believe it should be no longer than about one more month.
If business closures continue for a long time, it could lead to widespread bankruptcies and unemployment, and in the worst case scenario, it could even lead to a “Great Depression.”
(1) Germany, Italy, Spain, and Other Countries Beginning to Restart Economic Activity
① Germany
On April 15, German Chancellor Merkel announced a partial relaxation of restrictions introduced to combat the coronavirus. Starting on April 20, small and medium-sized businesses with floor space of less than 800 square meters will be allowed to reopen. Instead, mask wearing is encouraged in stores and on public transportation. Merkel described this as a “fragile intermediate success,” indicating the long-term fight against the virus.
To prevent a resurgence of infections, behavioral restrictions banning gatherings of more than three people have been extended until May 3. Large-scale events are also prohibited until the end of August, indicating that a complete return to normalcy is still a long way off.
Because the development of a vaccine is necessary to return to pre-pandemic conditions, the German government will continue to consider measures such as “using smartphones to monitor the behavior of infected individuals.”
② Italy
Italy, the epicenter of COVID-19 infections in Europe, has yet to contain the spread of the virus. However, under pressure from businesses seeking to reopen, Prime Minister Conte announced that some stores would be allowed to reopen starting April 14. At a press conference, the Prime Minister stated, “We cannot wait for the virus to disappear. Work has already begun toward a ‘second phase,’ in which we will implement measures while coexisting with the virus.”
On April 26, Prime Minister Conte announced that economic activity, including manufacturing and construction, would be gradually resumed starting May 4. This was driven by strong demand from the business community, but concerns remain about a second outbreak.
③ Spain
Spain has partially resumed “non-essential economic activity,” which had been banned since the end of March. Prime Minister Sanchez has reopened construction and manufacturing industries, hoping to quickly restore the domestic economy, which has been hit hard by business closures.
However, many shops and restaurants deemed non-essential remain closed.
(2) France: Restrictions Must Continue Due to Continuing Infection Spread
While some European countries, such as Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Denmark, have begun to ease restrictions, others, like France, remain plagued by persistent infection rates and are forced to maintain restrictions.
On April 13, President Macron announced that the “confinement of movement measures” implemented since March 17 would be extended until at least May 11.
Regarding the nationwide school closures that have been in place since March 16, he declared that “kindergartens through high schools will gradually reopen from May 11.”
He also stated his intention to gradually lift restrictions on work, which is currently mandated to be done from home whenever possible, “after ensuring the safety of workers.”