＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49) on X
<Added 12/18/2020> It’s unfortunate that Miyazawa Takayuki announced on 12/16 that he would be “refraining from social media”!
On Twitter @takavet1 “Miyazawa Takayuki, Minoyama’s Sect,” a tweet read, “I’ve been notified by the university to refrain from using social media. I will comply.”
The comment, “This is not an attempt to suppress free speech, but rather the university is no longer able to respond to complaints,” is disappointing and not entirely satisfactory.
I’m a complete amateur, so I can’t say for sure whether this is scientifically correct, but considering the spread of infections in South Korea, which has not implemented the Go To Travel campaign, we should consider this a “natural increase,” and the argument that “Go To Travel is the bad guy” seems to me to be purely emotional.
<Added December 15, 2020> The Prime Minister’s announcement of a nationwide temporary suspension of the Go To Travel campaign is a foolish policy.
On December 14, Prime Minister Suga announced that the Go To Travel campaign would be temporarily suspended nationwide from December 28 to January 11. While this may be a solution to his declining approval ratings, it was a hasty move without sufficient explanation for the change, and he simply said, “We’ll listen to the opinions of experts,” showing no conviction.
Not only will this put a damper on the peak season for tourism businesses like hotels and inns, travel agencies, and restaurants during the New Year’s holiday season, but I believe it will also cause major confusion and panic, including among travelers, and put the economy at high risk of bankruptcy and economic collapse.
Currently, Sapporo and Osaka have temporarily suspended the Go To Travel campaign and requested shortened business hours as COVID-19 countermeasures, and Tokyo and Nagoya are expected to soon suspend the Go To Travel campaign as well (a request for shortened business hours has already been implemented in Tokyo). There are also plans to extend the deadline, originally scheduled for late December, until January 11th.
Subcommittees of the government’s COVID-19 Expert Council, as well as the Japan Medical Association and Tokyo Medical Association, are all singing the same song, calling for the suspension of Go To Travel and requests for shortened business hours, citing the need to curb the spread of infection and prevent the collapse of the medical system.
Television news programs are also inviting experts every day to give their opinions and discuss the suspension of Go To Travel and requests for shortened business hours. The majority are in favor of these measures.
However, I have doubts about the effectiveness of these recent “coronavirus countermeasures.” I also feel that the media is unnecessarily stoking public anxiety about the coronavirus.
Among experts, Associate Professor Miyazawa of Kyoto University is one of the few who share my views. As for amateurs, there’s Jiro Karafuto, a former Yomiuri TV announcer and current news anchor.
Associate Professor Miyazawa shares his unique opinions on Twitter, YouTube, and on Osaka TV information programs such as “Seigi no Mikata” and “Sokomade Itte Iinkai NP,” but he’s not very well known, so we’d like to introduce him to you.
1. About Associate Professor Miyazawa of Kyoto University
Takayuki Miyazawa (1964- ) is a veterinarian from Nishinomiya City, Hyogo Prefecture, who graduated from the University of Tokyo’s Faculty of Agriculture and holds a PhD in Veterinary Medicine.
He is currently an associate professor at the Kyoto University Institute for Virus Research and Frontier Medical Sciences.
A veterinarian, he has studied over 50 types of viruses and describes himself as “probably the most knowledgeable expert in Japan.” Since all emerging viruses originate from animals, his research field is broad and deep, even extending to non-pathogenic viruses.
2. Kyoto University Associate Professor Miyazawa’s Perspective
As I understand it, Associate Professor Miyazawa’s thinking is roughly as follows:
(1) The “new coronavirus” is a known virus, not an unknown one.
According to him, human coronavirus NL63 emerged in the 11th century. This means we have been “living with COVID-19” since the Heian period, and coronaviruses are known viruses, not unknown ones.
The “new coronavirus” closely resembles the SARS coronavirus and can be considered a “weakened version of SARS.”
Since many people infected with the virus do not develop symptoms (are asymptomatic), he says, “we should take it seriously.”
(2) COVID-19 cannot be eradicated.
Since COVID-19 cannot be eradicated, we should fear it correctly, not unnecessarily. According to his estimates as of March 2020, the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 is around 4,000, which is not significantly higher than the 3,325 deaths from seasonal influenza in 2018.
Suspending the Go To Travel campaign and requesting shorter business hours will not reduce the number of infections. Even if this reduces the number of deaths from infection, it will only increase the number of “economic deaths” (suicides due to bankruptcy, economic downturns, etc.).
Looking at the correlation between the unemployment rate and the number of suicides, a 1% increase in the unemployment rate will result in 2,000 to 4,000 deaths. There is also forecast data that suggests that if real GDP falls by 14.2% in fiscal 2020, 140,000 people will die. Economic deaths will overwhelmingly outnumber COVID-19 deaths.
(3) 1/100 Strategy
It’s impossible to assume a zero-risk approach to contracting COVID-19.
Since it’s impossible to completely eliminate this virus from Japan, we should focus more on not infecting others than on not getting infected ourselves. Masks are important for this purpose.
That’s why he advocates the “1/100 Strategy.”
Infection does not occur with just one virus; previous animal experiments have shown that for feline pathogenic viruses, 10,000 viruses are needed to infect a cat for every 1 million produced in a test tube.
In other words, reducing the infectious virus to about 1/100th the original amount prevents infection. COVID-19 is easily transmitted for a few days before and after the onset of symptoms, but is no longer transmitted after 7 days.
Ten days after the onset of symptoms, the amount of virus in saliva is 1/100 of what it was on the day of onset. At that stage, it’s not contagious.
Thinking about it this way makes countermeasures easier, while excessive countermeasures will increase the overall human toll. COVID-19 is not an easily transmitted virus, so current transportation measures are sufficient.
Rather than needlessly stirring up anxiety among the public and local residents, the government and governors should send out a reassuring message that “there is no need to be excessively afraid as long as each person takes the correct infection prevention measures.”
In other words, “it is important to provide accurate information to the public and eliminate fear and anxiety.”
(4) Fried Egg Model
On November 22, 2020, Associate Professor Miyazawa announced the “Fried Egg Model” as a new COVID-19 countermeasure.
While recent reports often state that “the number of new COVID-19 infections nationwide is breaking new records every day,” Miyazawa’s analysis is that “Tokyo’s third wave of infections has already peaked.”
He believes this is “a natural decrease regardless of the suspension of the Go To Travel campaign or the shortened business hours of restaurants.” He predicts that “the next major wave will not come until next winter.”
“Based on the date of onset, the data clearly shows that Tokyo peaked on November 17th. Since symptoms appear approximately 4 to 14 days after infection, the peak on the date of infection was November 10th,” he said.
Since Tokyo requested restaurants to shorten their business hours on November 28th, it is likely that the natural decrease occurred regardless of self-restraint.
The theory (hypothesis) that explains this “natural decrease” is the “Fried Egg Model.”
The virus is divided into five concentric zones based on susceptibility to infection, with the most susceptible being the central “yolk,” which corresponds to busy areas such as nightlife districts.
The “white” zones become less susceptible to infection as they move outward, in the order of “household infections and dormitories,” “ordinary life,” “people who voluntarily implement strong infection control measures,” and “people who stay at home.”
In his theory, the “flame of infection” starts burning first in the yolk, and as the fire gradually spreads to the outer white, the infection in that burned area enters a containment phase.
“The ‘nightlife districts’ in major cities like Tokyo and Osaka were almost completely burned out by summer. This is clear from the fact that there were almost no clusters (groups of infections) in Shinjuku’s Kabukicho district during the third wave. Requesting shorter business hours and putting a damper on burned-out zones will have little effect, so now is the time to focus on infection control measures within homes and dormitories,” he emphasized.