＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49）さん / X
１．What is the “2022 Problem” of real estate?
Have you ever heard of the “2022 problem” of real estate? This refers to the various problems caused by the simultaneous demand for the purchase of green production land in urban areas for local governments in 2022.
In 1991, farmland in urban areas was rapidly being converted to residential land, and there were fears that farmland would disappear in urban areas if this trend continued, so the government revised the “Green Production Land Law” in order to protect farmland.
Specifically, in 1992, some farmland in urban areas was designated as “green production land,” and in exchange for preferential property and inheritance taxes, a “30-year farming obligation” was imposed. In other words, the land had to be used as “farmland” for 30 years and could not be “converted” to other uses.
However, in 2022, the “farming obligation” will be lifted, and farmland owners will be able to request the municipality to purchase their land. Although local governments are unlikely to purchase the land due to financial difficulties and other reasons, it will be possible to sell or convert the land even if it is not purchased.
This would lead to a large influx of converted residential land into the real estate market, and there is concern that real estate prices will decline.
２．Not much concern about a decline in real estate prices
I am not in the real estate industry, so this is just a “layman’s view,” but I think that the acquisition of land in central Tokyo by foreigners, especially Chinese, will accelerate. As a result, I do not think there is much concern about a decline in real estate prices. I think so.
３．Wealthy Chinese Buy Up Japanese Real Estate
Currently, since individuals cannot own land in China, wealthy people seem to be aggressively buying real estate overseas. I have heard that they are buying not only Japanese residential land and luxury condominiums, but also forests. There is also a rumor that Chinese are buying land in Hokkaido equivalent to 1,000 Tokyo Domes. However, during Japan’s bubble period, there was a lot of talk about condominiums in Hawaii and building acquisitions in New York City.
４．Concerns about a rapid increase in the construction of studio apartments
Another possibility is that many landowners who owned “production green areas” may not “sell” their land, but rather borrow funds from banks (or use their own funds) to build rental condominiums and “manage rental condominiums. However, the rapid increase in the construction of rental condominiums, such as studio apartments, will cause a further increase in the number of vacant and unoccupied existing rental housing units. I wrote about this problem in a previous article on the “vacant house problem.
My prediction for the “2022 problem” in real estate is that the influx of “land released from the production green zone” into the real estate market will not cause a land price collapse due to the strong desire of foreigners to acquire land and the continued ownership of land by landowners themselves through construction of rental housing. However, there may be a drop in the rental market due to the rapid increase in the number of rental housing units.
However, what I personally am really worried about is that the decline in green spaces will further aggravate the problem of Japan’s declining domestic self-sufficiency rate for agricultural products. I would like to see a serious and comprehensive mobilization of policy by the government.