＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49）さん / X
The expiration date of GSOMIA, which South Korea has announced it will terminate, is approaching at midnight on November 23rd. South Korea continues to engage in illogical and unreasonable bargaining, trying to get Japan to revoke its decision to remove South Korea from the “white list.” However, unless the suspicion of South Korea diverting strategic materials to North Korea is cleared up, it will not be possible for South Korea to be “reinstated as a white list member,” so it is the South Korean side that should make efforts to restore trust. I believe that Japan should be consistent in its response on this issue, never compromising and taking a firm stance.
This time I would like to think about this.
1. What is GSOMIA?
GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) is an agreement concluded between two or more countries that are in a close relationship, such as an alliance, to prevent the disclosure of secret military information to third countries when sharing it with each other.
As of August 2019, Japan has concluded this agreement with seven countries, including the United States and NATO, the United States has concluded it with over 60 countries, and South Korea has concluded it with 21 countries.
The GSOMIA in question is the Japan-South Korea Agreement on the Protection of Classified Military Information, which was signed on November 23, 2016, and is automatically renewed every year. Termination of the agreement requires notice three months before renewal.
2. Impact of GSOMIA termination
Even in the meeting between President Moon Jae-in and US Secretary of Defense Esper on October 15, Esper tried to persuade Moon that “terminating GSOMIA will only benefit China, Russia, and North Korea,” but President Moon refused, so I think GSOMIA termination is inevitable.
Another positive factor is that 55.4% of South Korean public opinion polls showed that they “support the termination of GSOMIA.”
So what kind of impact would the termination of GSOMIA have?
(1) It would derail the US strategy to build a joint defense system in Northeast Asia.
GSOMIA was intended to improve the ability of both Japan and South Korea to respond to military threats from North Korea by exchanging military and security information on North Korea. This was supposed to be an important step in the United States building a “Japan-US-South Korea Joint Defense System in Northeast Asia.”
(2) Japan’s Decline in Its Ability to Gather Military Intelligence on North Korea
Japan’s intelligence gathering capabilities regarding North Korea are no match for those of the United States. In addition, Japan’s surveillance capabilities along the armistice line (ground-based radar, radio interception facilities, and reconnaissance and surveillance by aircraft and ships) are no match for those of South Korea, which is geographically closer. In the future, information on such matters will be obtained via the United States.
(3) South Korea will no longer be able to obtain missile trajectory analysis information by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.
For South Korea, the highly accurate missile trajectory analysis information provided by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces is the information they most want, but if the agreement is terminated, they will no longer be able to obtain it.
According to former ambassador to South Korea Muto Masatoshi, overall, South Korea stands to gain more from GSOMIA. Muto said, “The termination of GSOMIA is a testament to South Korea’s ‘security insensitivity.'”
(4) Exposing cracks in Japan-US-South Korea military cooperation and impeding joint Japan-US-South Korea military operations
This would be a very advantageous situation militarily for China, Russia, and North Korea. Even though the United States has formed an alliance with South Korea, it is not surprising that people are skeptical of the South Korean military’s cooperation in the event of a Korean Peninsula emergency under the current circumstances. It is also clear that joint military operations by Japan, the United States, and South Korea would be hindered.
If the withdrawal or reduction of US troops in South Korea is seriously considered and implemented, there is a possibility that North Korea will launch a military invasion of Seoul, South Korea, and effectively unify the two countries into a communist state. If that happens, the entire Korean Peninsula will become Japan’s hypothetical enemy country, and Tsushima will become a frontline base.
If all Koreans truly wish for a communist unification of the Korean Peninsula and are prepared to accept the negative aspects of that, then I think it would be fine for Korea to become a communist country. However, I think the majority of the people probably do not wish for a communist unification. Aren’t there many Koreans who think that “unification is impossible” or “we don’t want unification” in the first place?
(5) Just going back to the way it was before 2016
However, GSOMIA is a fairly new agreement, concluded in November 2016, and its termination could be seen as simply returning to the status quo ante.
Going forward, military information exchanges between Japan and South Korea will be in accordance with the existing “Agreement on Japan-US-South Korea Intelligence Sharing,” with each country receiving information via the US, which will be inefficient and time-consuming but unavoidable.
3. South Korea’s anti-Japanese, anti-American, pro-North Korean stance
President Moon Jae-in’s term ends in May 2022, but as long as the Moon administration remains in power, I believe South Korea’s anti-Japanese, anti-American, pro-North Korean stance will remain unchanged.
Article 70 of the Constitution of the Republic of Korea states that “The term of office of the President shall be five years and the President may not be reappointed.” However, President Moon Jae-in pledged to support a “four-year presidential system” during the presidential election. This would involve amending the Constitution to make the President’s term four years and to allow for reappointment.
In 2018, there was an attempt to hold a national referendum on constitutional amendment at the same time as the unified local elections, but it ended in failure due to time running out.
President Moon Jae-in may be seeking to amend the constitution in order to be re-elected, as his successor candidate, the so-called “Onion Man” Cho Kuk, was appointed Minister of Justice in September 2019 but resigned in just over a month.
