＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49) on X
<Added April 11, 2024> The Kishida Cabinet’s approval rating hits a new low of 16.6%! It’s completely on its last legs.
According to a Jiji Press April 5-8 poll, the Kishida Cabinet’s approval rating fell 1.4 points from the previous month to 16.6%, the lowest since the administration took office. The disapproval rating rose 2.0 points to 59.4%. Following the factional slush fund scandal, the LDP disciplined senior members of both the Abe and Nikai factions, but this did not lead to a recovery in the Cabinet’s approval rating.
The approval rating fell below 16.9% in February of this year, the lowest since the LDP returned to power in December 2012. Only 24.0% responded “I don’t know.” The LDP’s party approval rating slumped to 15.3%, down 2.4 points from the previous month.
<Added February 15, 2024> The Kishida Cabinet’s approval rating hits a new low of 16.9%! It’s completely on its last legs.
According to a February opinion poll conducted by Jiji Press from February 9th to 12th, the Kishida Cabinet’s approval rating fell 1.7 points from the previous month to 16.9%, the lowest since the Cabinet took office. The disapproval rating rose 6.4 points to 60.4%, exceeding 60% for the first time.
This is the lowest approval rating since the LDP returned to power in December 2012. It has remained below 20% – considered “dangerous waters” – for seven consecutive months, and has fallen to the single-figure range for the past three months. Meanwhile, this is the first time the disapproval rating has reached the 60% range since the Abe Cabinet’s May 2020 release. This is thought to be due in part to the slush fund scandal involving an LDP faction.
The LDP’s party approval rating rose 1.7 points from the previous month to 16.3%. While this is a slight increase from January, when it hit an all-time low, it has remained in the single-figure range for four consecutive months.
The sum of the Cabinet approval rating and the LDP approval rating is 33.2%, well below 50%. According to Aoki’s Law, the Kishida Cabinet could fall at any time.
In fact, it would be strange if it didn’t fall.
The approval rating of the Cabinet led by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, which was inaugurated on September 16, 2020, has recently plummeted, and this downward spiral of declining approval ratings doesn’t appear to be stopping anytime soon.
Personally, I had high hopes for the Cabinet when it was first formed, thinking it would do a decent job. However, disappointments have continued in many ways, so the sudden drop in approval ratings is understandable.
1. Suga Cabinet Approval Rating According to Opinion Poll
According to a nationwide telephone poll conducted by Kyodo News on January 9 and 10, the Suga Cabinet’s approval rating was 41.3%. This is a further drop of 9.0 points from the previous survey in December, when the approval rating plummeted 12.7 points.
The disapproval rating this time was 42.8%, meaning disapproval and approval are now tied roughly four months after the administration took office. 79.2% of respondents said the timing of the re-declaration of a state of emergency in one prefecture and three prefectures due to the spread of COVID-19 was “too late.”
68.3% of respondents “do not approve” of the government’s response to COVID-19, while 24.9% “approve” of it, the lowest figures even under the Abe administration. The most common reason for disapproval of the cabinet, at 41.2%, was that the prime minister “lacks leadership skills.”
2. What is “Aoki’s Law”?
“Aoki’s Law” is a “law regarding cabinet approval ratings and party approval ratings” supposedly coined by former LDP member of the House of Councillors, Mikio Aoki. It states that “if the sum of these two figures falls below 50, the government will fall.” It is also known as the “Aoki Equation.”
This can be considered an “empirical rule in Japanese politics.”
Mikio Aoki (1934-2023) was a prominent politician nicknamed “the Don of the House of Councillors,” having served as Chief Cabinet Secretary, Secretary-General of the LDP House of Councillors, and Chairman of the LDP House of Councillors.
He served as Chief Cabinet Secretary in the Obuchi and Mori cabinets. This “Aoki’s Law” became a widely held belief and is often cited as a guideline for government change.
3. Recent Cabinet Approval Ratings and Party Approval Ratings
(1) Recent Cabinet Approval Ratings
According to a January 16th Mainichi Shimbun opinion poll, the Suga Cabinet’s “cabinet approval rating” fell to 33%. The “disapproval rating” was 57%. In the previous survey (December 12th), the ratings were 40% and 49%, respectively.
In a January 15th-17th Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll, the “cabinet approval rating” was 39% and the “disapproval rating” was 49%. In the previous survey (December 26th-27th), the ratings were 45% and 43%, respectively.
Regarding the government and ruling party, there are growing voices of caution, warning that “dangerous waters are approaching.” Even within the LDP, there are voices saying, “If things continue like this, the ‘Suga removal’ will begin,” and “If it falls below 30%, it will be dangerous waters.”
(2) Recent Party Approval Ratings
According to the above Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll, the LDP’s “party approval rating” was 37% (previously 38%).
4. Isn’t Suga Yoshihide a “competent staff officer” and “worthy of being prime minister?”
Nowadays, with television, anyone can watch the prime minister’s speeches and public appeals. Unlike simply seeing a photograph, a prime minister’s personality and abilities are directly conveyed to the public through the screen.
Prime Minister Suga was certainly competent as Chief Cabinet Secretary, and may have been skilled at behind-the-scenes maneuvering and manipulating bureaucrats.
However, when watching his policy speeches and public appeals, there are many things I’m dissatisfied with: “He’s just reading from a script,” “His words just pass empty through my ears and don’t resonate with me at all,” and “His policies change frequently due to pressure from governors, and I don’t sense any conviction.”
Personally, I don’t believe that suspending the Go To Travel campaign or requesting shorter business hours will prevent the spread of infection. I believe they will only increase the economic damage. I also believe that declaring a state of emergency is largely meaningless and is only increasing confusion and economic damage.
Therefore, we want the next prime minister to be a politician with great insight and ambition who can firmly assert and stick to his or her beliefs both at home and abroad, without looking back and forth without a clear view or pandering to the faction leaders who have supported him or her.
After all, at times like these, we want a prime minister with firm convictions and strong leadership. The Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party for the People, the Social Democratic Party, the Communist Party, and others are completely unreliable, so we want the LDP to do its job, but the current situation makes it very difficult to rely on.