＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49) on X
(Reference) Original article in Japanese
・ウッドショックとは？影響はいつまで？原因と対策をわかりやすくご紹介します
Recently, the term “Wood Shock” has become quite common.
Speaking of “shocks,” there have been past examples such as the “First Nixon Shock” (Nixon’s declaration of visit to China) and the “Second Nixon Shock” (dollar shock) in 1971, the two “oil shocks” in the 1970s (shortening crude oil prices due to tight supply), and the “Lehman Shock” in 2008, triggered by the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers. The “oil shock,” in particular, with its “toilet paper panic” and “runaway inflation,” directly impacted our lives, making it something we felt firsthand.
However, this “Wood Shock” hasn’t really resonated with us yet, so many people might not understand what it means.
1. What is the “Wood Shock”?
(As of March 2021) This refers to the increasingly pronounced situation of market turmoil caused by a global shortage of timber supply and soaring timber prices.
In particular, Japan, which relies on imports for approximately 60% of its timber, is experiencing a significant impact on housing construction.
In the Japanese housing industry, housing prices have begun to rise, and some construction companies are being forced to delay construction starts, suspend projects, or even suspend orders. The duration of this situation remains uncertain.
The Chicago timber futures price, a key indicator of timber prices, has risen approximately fivefold in one year, reaching a peak in May 2021. While it has been on a downward trend since then, it remains at a high level.
Domestic timber prices in Japan are also rising, with some reports indicating a 2.5-fold increase in price for certain types of timber.
2. Causes and Countermeasures for the “Wood Shock”
However, it’s strange that Japan, a “forest nation” with 70% of its land covered in forests, still relies on imported timber for 60% of its supply, even with the significant increase in timber demand.
(1) Causes
① Spread of COVID-19
The spread of COVID-19 led to a “reassessment of work styles,” resulting in the spread of teleworking, increased migration from large cities to suburbs, and a decline in the supply capacity of the lumber industry. These factors are said to have been major triggers for the “wood shock.”
With no end in sight to the pandemic, this situation is likely to continue for some time.
② Global Housing Construction and Renovation Boom
The “reassessment of work styles” led to a surge in new home construction in suburban areas worldwide, as well as renovations to create more comfortable environments, including teleworking spaces, in existing homes. This tightened the supply and demand for lumber, directly causing a surge in lumber prices.
This trend is particularly pronounced in China and the United States.
In the United States, reduced household spending due to COVID-19, coupled with generous government subsidies and low-interest mortgages, fueled a housing construction and renovation boom.
③ Decline in the Supply Capacity of the Lumber Industry
Due to the initial drop in demand caused by the spread of the coronavirus, the lumber industry entered a production cut-off phase.
However, due to the circumstances described in ②, demand recovered in a V-shape, disrupting the supply-demand balance.
④ Global Container (Container Ship) Shortage
Even when Japan imports timber from overseas, it is transported by ship. Similarly, in China, with its large population, the demand for timber has increased, and coupled with the fact that timber is being imported at high prices from around the world, there is a shortage of transport ships (container ships).
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the shipping industry reduced the number of containers in response to the decrease in cargo handling.
In this context, the expansion of stay-at-home consumption and the surge in timber demand coincided, leading to a container shortage.
The large container ship grounding accident in the Suez Canal also exacerbated the disruption to shipping.
In short, there is a “worldwide scramble for timber.” This, in turn, is leading to increased import costs and ultimately contributing to soaring timber prices.
(2) Countermeasures
Short-term measures for consumers would likely involve postponing new home construction or renovations until timber supply stabilizes and prices settle down.
Timber wholesalers and home builders will probably consider raising wholesale and order prices.
However, long-term measures boil down to a shift from imported timber to domestically produced timber.
① Increasing the utilization rate of domestically produced timber
I previously wrote articles on increasing food self-sufficiency for food security and reducing dependence on China in supply chains through the return of manufacturing to Japan. Similarly, in forestry, we should aim to achieve near 100% timber self-sufficiency as quickly as possible, as in the past.
② Promoting “self-sustaining forestry” and increasing the use of domestically produced timber in large-scale timber processing plants
I discussed this in detail in a previous article on “self-sustaining forestry.”
③ Implementation of planned forestry policies by the government
I believe it is necessary to implement forestry policies that support “appropriate logging of domestically produced timber and planned afforestation.” Furthermore, stabilizing domestic timber prices is also essential.
In the future, I think “exporting domestically produced timber” will also become a topic of consideration.