＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49) on X
<Added June 10, 2024> Frequent Fire Accidents in Chinese-Made Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Recently, there have been a series of fire accidents involving electric vehicles (EVs). This has raised concerns about the safety of electric vehicles (EVs). Possible causes of fire accidents include battery overheating and short circuits, and fire extinguishing methods differ from those used in conventional gasoline-powered vehicles, making response difficult.
According to China’s Emergency Management Department, the number of electric vehicle (EV) fires in China increased 32% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same period last year.
The department reported a total of 640 EV fire accidents in the first quarter of 2022, an average of seven accidents per day.
There has been a sudden buzz surrounding BYD, a major Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer that began sales in Japan on January 31, 2023. This is due to the discovery that hexavalent chromium-containing solvents were used in electric buses delivered to Japan.
Hexavalent chromium, used in bolts and nuts, prevents corrosion of metal surfaces but is toxic to humans and its use is banned in Europe. While there are no legal restrictions in Japan, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) is calling for voluntary restrictions.
This is not the only safety concern for BYD. There have been numerous incidents of spontaneous battery fires in China.
According to a September 6, 2022, report by Taiwanese media outlet T-Mobile, a total of 13 fires have occurred in a four-month period. In particular, in June of last year, a series of battery fires occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, Foshan, Guangdong Province, and Guigang, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on the 6th. On the 12th, a parked electric vehicle burst into flames in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province.
<Added May 23, 2024> Subsidizing Chinese-made EVs is a foolish waste of taxpayer money.
Since the beginning of 2023, EV sales have clearly increased in the global auto market. Topping the list is Chinese EV manufacturer BYD, followed by American manufacturer Tesla, in fierce competition for the top spot. Chinese companies such as Geely and Guangzhou Automobile Group’s AION (formerly GAC New Energy) have also achieved significant market share. Japanese automakers have yet to break into the top ranks in the EV market.
It is no exaggeration to say that the outcome of the global EV market is almost decided.
The price competitiveness of Chinese companies like BYD and the speed at which they launch new models are remarkable. The influence of the Xi administration’s industrial subsidy policies is an important factor supporting this.
The rise of Chinese manufacturers is expected to face backlash from other countries in the future. The European Commission appears to be considering imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, as has been done in the United States. Trade friction over EVs is likely to intensify.
Meanwhile, Japan is even providing sales subsidies for Chinese-made EVs. Japan needs to seriously consider how to respond to the rapid market share expansion of Chinese EV manufacturers and how to develop a domestic EV industry.
At the very least, providing subsidies to encourage the sale of Chinese-made EVs is a foolish waste of taxpayer money.
<Update: February 16, 2024> “EV Owners Scream, Unable to Return Home as Planned Due to Ferry Boarding Restrictions = Heavy Traffic Jams Around the Port – Hainan Province, China”
On February 15, Chinese media outlet Hongxing News reported that electric vehicle (EV) owners visiting Hainan Province over the Lunar New Year holiday were experiencing difficulties.
According to the article, 15,000 to 20,000 vehicles travel daily across the ferry network at the three ports in Haikou City, Hainan Province. To avoid congestion this year, only vehicles within three hours of departure are permitted to enter. However, many vehicles are lining up outside the ports in advance, fearing they might miss their ferry. Wait times can sometimes exceed five hours, and for some EVs, even longer.
Su, a traveler from Zhejiang Province to Hainan Province in an EV, explained, “I waited more than three hours on the way here, but on the way back, I expected ferry tickets to be even harder to come by, so I checked the platform early and managed to purchase one for the 15th.” “We waited outside the port until 4 a.m. and finally boarded at noon. Gasoline-powered cars kept boarding, but there’s nothing we can do about it. There’s a limit of 18 EVs on each ferry,” he said.
According to transport guidelines released by the Hainan Province Ministry of Transport and Maritime Administration in December last year, “New energy vehicles (EVs) must be parked in designated areas after boarding, and the number of EVs per ferry must be 10% of the total, and must not exceed 18.”
Regarding the limit on the number of EVs on ferries, a transport company employee explained, “EVs are prone to fire and other accidents if they become too hot in direct sunlight or are not charged properly. If they catch fire, it could cause serious damage to the ship and threaten the lives and safety of those on board.”
This is yet another unexpected pitfall of electric vehicles (EVs).
<Added July 20, 2021> The EU’s “2035 Hybrid Vehicle Sales Ban” Aims to “Crush Japanese Manufacturers”
On July 14, the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union (EU), released a policy document (communiqué) on a comprehensive bill to combat climate change.
One point that has particularly attracted attention in Japanese media coverage is the ambitious policy of limiting new vehicle supply within the EU to zero-emission vehicles (vehicles that do not emit greenhouse gases) by 2035.
A major problem for Japanese automakers is that hybrid vehicles (HVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs), the specialty of Japanese manufacturers such as Toyota Motor Corporation, will be excluded from this zero-emission vehicle category.
In other words, the EU has made clear its intention to only allow new vehicle registrations of so-called electric vehicles (EVs, or more accurately, battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs)) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) from 2035 onward.
This is nothing more than a Japan-bashing campaign under the guise of “climate change countermeasures.”
However, electric vehicles (EVs, or more accurately, BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) also have disadvantages (weaknesses), as described below.
Even if gasoline-powered vehicles are gradually phased out, I believe it is essential to maintain hybrid vehicles (HVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs), which Japan specializes in, in order to ensure safety.
President Biden, who took office on January 20, 2021, immediately rejoined the Paris Agreement (an international framework for combating global warming), which President Trump had withdrawn from.
While the general reaction around the world, including in Japan, is “welcome,” I have doubts about “global warming countermeasures” in general.
The reason I have doubts is that no matter how much developed countries, including Japan, spend huge amounts of money on “global warming countermeasures” that are only expected to have a minimal effect, developing countries such as Africa, which are aiming to double their energy production, will continue to increase their CO2 emissions in the future. China, too, continues to emit so much CO2 that its air pollution is becoming serious.
Even if “global warming countermeasures” are necessary, this is like “no matter how hard you try to pour water into a bucket with a hole in it, the water will never fill up.”
1. Advantages and disadvantages of electric vehicles
(1) Advantages
① Tax breaks and subsidies available
There are subsidies such as the “Clean Energy Vehicle Subsidy,” “Greening Special Measures,” and “Eco-Car Subsidies,” but these are also funded by taxpayers’ money.
② Low fuel efficiency
③ No exhaust fumes, making it environmentally friendly
④ Quiet
(2) Disadvantages
① Vehicle price is too high
② Charging time is too long
③ Lack of charging stations
④ Continuous driving range is too short
For reasons ③ and ④ above, I’m concerned that as the number of electric vehicles increases, many cars will run out of charge and become stranded. In town, calling the Japan Automobile Federation (JAF) may be able to arrive quickly, but on mountain roads or in remote rural areas, won’t people be stranded for longer?
In the cold winter, there’s a risk of people freezing to death due to a dead electric vehicle charge.
⑤ There are doubts about Japan’s ability to respond if heavy snowfall strands many vehicles on highways.
If a sudden heavy snowfall strands many vehicles on highways for an extended period of time and they run out of fuel, as happened on the Kan’etsu Expressway last December, gasoline-powered vehicles could be refilled with gasoline. However, for electric vehicles, even after snow removal is complete, wouldn’t it take a considerable amount of time for recovery?
In the worst-case scenario, electric vehicles will likely have no choice but to call a fast-charging vehicle or be towed to a charging station.
⑥ Possibility of a large-scale blackout due to a power shortage for charging.
Even though electric vehicles do not emit CO2, they require electricity to be transmitted over long distances from CO2-emitting power plants before being used, which is much less efficient than gasoline-powered vehicles that burn fossil fuels directly in their internal combustion engines. This could be seen as a less efficient use of fossil fuels.
At present, I think it’s more realistic to continue focusing on promoting hybrid vehicles, Japan’s specialty, worldwide. Following in the footsteps of Europe and the United States in electric vehicles is not a good idea.
Just as “all-electric” homes are completely useless during a power outage, “electric vehicles” are extremely fragile and completely useless when the power goes out.
2. What is the “Ban on New Gasoline-Powered Vehicle Sales by 2035” Policy?
On December 25, 2020, the Growth Strategy Council, under the government’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, adopted the “Green Growth Strategy for Carbon Neutrality by 2050,” based on Prime Minister Suga’s October 2020 declaration of carbon neutrality.
The strategy positions climate change mitigation as “an opportunity for growth” and outlines a “Roadmap for Transformation.” The following was stated regarding the automobile and battery industries:
We will promote the electrification of automobiles. With bans on the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles being enacted one after another in some European countries and California, the electrification of automobiles is progressing at a faster pace than expected. Japan must aim to become a leader in this field.
We will take comprehensive measures to achieve 100% electrification (electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and hybrid vehicles) in new passenger car sales by the mid-2030s at the latest. We will also begin consideration of commercial vehicle electrification by the summer of 2021, in line with passenger car adoption.
Over the next decade, we will vigorously promote the introduction of electric vehicles and build a world-leading industrial supply chain and mobility society, including batteries. In this process, we will take special measures to convert light vehicles and commercial vehicles, in particular, to electric and fuel cell vehicles.
Through these efforts and efforts to achieve carbon neutral energy, we will pursue diverse options for carbon neutrality and aim to achieve zero CO2 emissions from the production, use, and disposal of automobiles by 2050.
We will also work to resolve regional transportation issues by transforming how cars are used, so that CO2 emissions can be reduced while revitalizing transportation. We will accelerate the social implementation of new services and infrastructure that respond to changes in user behavior and electrification.
Furthermore, storage batteries are key to achieving carbon-free balancing, which is necessary for the electrification of automobiles and the spread of renewable energy. We will strengthen the industrial competitiveness of storage batteries through policies such as support for research and development, demonstration projects, and capital investment, consideration of institutional frameworks, and international collaboration toward standardization.
As soon as possible by 2030, we aim to achieve an in-vehicle battery pack price of 10,000 yen/kWh or less, making the economic efficiency of electric vehicles and gasoline-powered vehicles equivalent, and a system price of 70,000 yen/kWh or less (including installation costs) that makes solar-powered home storage batteries economical.
Furthermore, from 2030 onwards, we aim to commercialize next-generation batteries, which are expected to further improve storage battery performance. Specifically, we aim to first fully commercialize all-solid-state lithium-ion batteries, and then commercialize innovative battery types (such as fluoride batteries and zinc anode batteries) around 2035.
(Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Green Growth Strategy for Carbon Neutrality by 2050)
3. Questions about the policy to ban new pure gasoline vehicle sales by 2035
(1) There is no necessity or need to follow the West’s lead in electrification.
Just because electric vehicles are becoming common in the West does not mean that Japan should follow a similar path.
There was a time when it was fashionable in the business world to imitate the West under the guise of “global standards.” However, I doubt that we should rush to promote “global warming countermeasures” and “decarbonization policies” simply to avoid falling behind the international community.
(2) A sudden and hasty electrification policy would have a significant negative impact on Japan’s automobile and oil industries.
Japan’s automobile industry is a massive industry, encompassing many small and medium-sized subcontractors. A sudden shift toward electric vehicles would have a significant impact on these automobile industry groups, potentially even resulting in a devastating blow.
The nonsensical “charge for plastic bags” policy was introduced in July 2020, and I believe it will also have a significant impact on the oil industry. Ironically, however, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increase in takeout, leading to increased use of plastic containers and a sharp increase in the use of vinyl and plastic barriers to prevent droplets from spreading.
(3) Electrification should be implemented gradually, in line with Japan’s current state of readiness for electrification.
Prime Minister Suga seems too hasty in his pursuit of carbon neutrality, vehicle electrification, and digitalization, perhaps because he’s “hurried” to achieve success or simply “loves performance.”
Meticulous preparations should be made, and measures should be implemented gradually only once the public is ready to accept them. Failure to do so will not only unnecessarily confuse the public, but will also impose unnecessary burdens and unnecessary effort.
(4) The very nature of “global warming countermeasures” and “decarbonization measures” is questionable.
As with the “marine plastic waste problem,” I believe Japan is bewildered and entrapped by the illusory ideals (or “dogmas”) of “global warming countermeasures” and “decarbonization measures,” resulting in enormous waste of taxpayer money.
Other countries are shrewdly prioritizing their own national interests, and I am worried that Japan will end up with a case where “honesty is the downside.”