＜prologue＞
I started a blog called “The Baby Boomer Generation’s Miscellaneous Blog”（Dankai-sedai no garakutatyou:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳） in July 2018, about a year before I fully retired. More than six years have passed since then, and the number of articles has increased considerably.
So, in order to make them accessible to people who don’t understand Japanese, I decided to translate my past articles into English and publish them.
It may sound a bit exaggerated, but I would like to make this my life’s work.
It should be noted that haiku and waka （Japanese short fixed form poems） are quite difficult to translate into English, so some parts are written in Japanese.
If you are interested in haiku or waka and would like to know more, please read introductory or specialized books on haiku or waka written in English.
I also write many articles about the Japanese language. I would be happy if these inspire more people to want to learn Japanese.
my blog’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多（がらくた）帳 | 団塊世代が雑学や面白い話を発信しています
my X’s URL:団塊世代の我楽多帳（@historia49) on X
(Reference) Original article in Japanese
・中国のワクチン外交とは？その狙いと実態をわかりやすくご紹介します
<Updated 2023/2/27> Reports indicate US Department of Energy believes coronavirus originated from a Chinese laboratory
The following report was published by Asahi Shimbun Digital:
Regarding the origin of the novel coronavirus, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 26th that the US Department of Energy has determined it is highly likely that the virus leaked from a Chinese laboratory. This is based on new classified information and has been reported to the White House and US Congressional officials. However, within the US government, some agencies still favor the theory that the virus was transmitted to humans via animals, resulting in divided opinions.
According to the WSJ, the Department of Energy, while stating that its “certainty is low,” has determined that the virus spread due to an accidental incident at a Chinese laboratory. The Department of Energy oversees US national laboratories that also conduct cutting-edge biological research and possesses “considerable scientific expertise.”
Among other government agencies, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) also supports the laboratory leak theory. The National Intelligence Council and four other agencies support the animal-mediated theory, while two agencies, including the CIA, have not yet concluded which theory is correct.
The Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, which remains suspected of being the origin of the novel coronavirus, finally received a WHO investigation in January 2021, more than a year after the initial confirmation of the outbreak.
Even this WHO international investigation failed to determine the origin of the coronavirus or the course of its spread. However, the year-long delay in the investigation inevitably raises suspicions that it was an attempt to conceal evidence.
Regardless of that, China, along with Russia, is now actively engaging in “vaccine diplomacy,” providing domestically produced vaccines to developing countries.
What are the aims and realities of this? This time, we will focus on China.
1. What is China’s Vaccine Diplomacy?
In the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak, China engaged in “mask diplomacy.”
According to an announcement by the Chinese government at the end of March 2020, China provided medical masks, testing kits, protective equipment, and ventilators to a total of 120 countries, including Europe, the Americas, Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, and dispatched a total of 170 medical teams.
However, this attempt failed because many countries refused to use Chinese-made medical masks, testing kits, protective equipment, and ventilators, deeming them “poor quality and substandard.”
Now, China is actively pursuing “vaccine diplomacy.”
(1) The Aim
The aim, I believe, is to win over developing countries by providing them with vaccines, in order to realize President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (*).
(*) The “Belt and Road Initiative” is a massive economic zone concept spanning Asia, Europe, and Africa, proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2013 and currently being promoted.
I believe this is China’s “imperialism 100 years behind” and “neo-colonialism.”
(2) The Reality
China has reportedly “provided” 500 million doses of Chinese-made vaccines to 112 countries and regions as part of its vaccine diplomacy.
Many people mistakenly believe that this is a “free provision of all vaccines,” but the majority were “paid (sold),” with only a small amount being “donated.”
On the July 19th broadcast of BS-TBS’s “Hodo 1930,” Professor Ichiro Korogi of Kanda University of International Studies stated, “This is not a gift. As of May 17th, 683 million doses have been ‘exported.’ In other words, they are ‘selling.’ Only 18.3 million doses were provided free of charge, so the word ‘provided’ is misleading.”
China’s vaccine diplomacy is known as the “Health Silk Road.” This term was used by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a speech titled “International Situation and Chinese Diplomacy in 2020” on December 11, 2020.
China is promoting the “Belt and Road Initiative” and carrying out international infrastructure investment plans, but there have been numerous cases where China has seized infrastructure itself when financially weaker countries are unable to repay construction costs.
This refers to the statement made by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aso at the Upper House Budget Committee on November 29, 2017, regarding the operation and loan screening of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): “If borrowers don’t properly plan their repayments, they’ll end up like loan sharks, and it will all be for nothing.”
Regarding vaccine provision, concerns have been raised that China aims to increase diplomatic pressure on recipient countries in the future as a “quid pro quo.”
In fact, on March 24, 2021, the Paraguayan Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that China had demanded “severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan and establishment of diplomatic relations with China” as a condition for receiving vaccines from China.
Ultimately, Paraguay rejected China’s demands and abandoned its plan to receive vaccines from China. Paraguay plans to receive vaccines from India and COVAX (a WHO international framework aiming for equitable distribution of vaccines).
Guatemala has also received similar demands from China as Paraguay, and has refused.
Furthermore, the Czech Republic has canceled its purchase of Chinese-made vaccines, and Poland has also abandoned its purchase of Chinese-made vaccines.
2. The Success or Failure of China’s Vaccine Diplomacy
In this way, China is using vaccines as a “strategic resource.” Will this vaccine diplomacy succeed? Or will it end in failure?
As mentioned above, China’s vaccine provision is not a “goodwill-based gratuitous donation,” but rather a “blatant demand for something in return through intimidation diplomacy,” and cracks are beginning to appear.
However, as the proverb says, “a drowning man will clutch at a straw,” and there is no doubt that some developing countries suffering from the explosive spread of COVID-19 will turn to China for vaccines.
Japan, in response to China’s vaccine diplomacy, has already begun directly donating AstraZeneca vaccines to Southeast Asian countries without going through “COVAX.”
In June, China donated 1.24 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine to Taiwan and 6 million doses to Vietnam. Starting in July, China plans to donate to Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia as well.
Foreign Minister Motegi stated that the reasons for selecting these countries were “considering their relationship with Japan, in addition to the infection situation,” and that they are “extremely important countries for realizing Japan’s advocated ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’.”
He also stated that the reason for not using the WHO’s COVAX framework for international vaccine procurement, which is considered pro-China, is “because the approval process may take a long time.”
It is difficult to judge the success or failure of China’s vaccine diplomacy at this point.
However, considering the growing perception among countries that have recently received Chinese-made vaccines that “there are doubts and problems with the effectiveness and safety of Chinese-made vaccines,” I believe that China’s vaccine diplomacy, like its mask diplomacy, is highly likely to end in failure.